KeyBanc Capital Markets Global Steel Production

David Adams

— 2 min read
Share

Keybank Capital Markets

Alert

August 24, 2026

Industrial: Steel

Global Steel Production - ALERT: July Daily Global Production Decreases M/M on China, While U.S. Output Remains Flat at Historically Strong Levels

Read Full Report

 

Today, we received an update on July global steel production from the World Steel Association (WSA). On an average daily production basis, global crude steel production decreased ~7% m/m, with Chinese output down ~11% m/m and RoW output down ~3% m/m. In July, overall global production was down ~0.3% y/y, with Chinese production declining ~4% y/y and RoW production increasing ~3% y/y. Average daily North American production in July was down ~1% m/m and up ~5% y/y. Europe's production in July was down ~7% m/m on an average daily basis and was up ~3% y/y.

Average Daily Global Output Falls M/M. July global crude steel production decreased ~7% m/m on an average daily basis, with Chinese production down ~11% and RoW production down ~3%. July global production decreased ~0.3% y/y, driven by Chinese production declining ~4%, largely offset by RoW improving by ~3%. China's average daily production in July was 2.48M tonnes (vs. 2.79M tonnes in May), indicating easing production amid soft demand, no major policy support, and rising trade barriers.

On an average daily basis in July, Russian production declined ~6% m/m, but rose ~3% y/y. Ukrainian average daily output decreased ~36% m/m and declined ~21% y/y, with both figures likely impacted by Russian strikes against ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih and Metinvest Zaporizhstal. India's average daily output was flattish m/m and up ~2% y/y. Japan's output was down ~1% m/m on an average daily basis and up <1% y/y, marking a fourth consecutive month of y/y growth following a 25-month streak of y/y declines. Turkish production was flattish m/m on an average daily basis and was up ~7% y/y.

Average Daily North American Production Eases M/M. On an average daily basis, North American steel production dropped ~1% m/m in July, driven by a ~5% production decline in Mexico, a ~4% decline in Canada, and with flattish U.S. trends. While U.S. production was flattish m/m on an average daily basis (31 days in July vs. 30 days in June), the July 2026 raw monthly production total represents the second-highest figure in nearly five years (#1 is May 2026). North American steel production was up ~5% y/y in July, driven by solid growth in Mexico (up ~8%), Canada (up ~5%), and the U.S. (up ~4%). Domestic mill utilization rates averaged ~80% in July (~80% in June, ~81% in May), with current utilization levels at 79-80%.

Daily European Steel Production Declines M/M. Europe's (EU27 and U.K.) July steel production was down ~7% m/m on an average daily basis, with broad-based declines across major producers, including Germany (down ~8%), Italy (down ~8%), Spain (down ~21%), France (down ~3%), and the U.K. (down ~14%). However, Europe's production increased ~3% y/y, as growth in Germany (up ~3%), France (up ~13%), and Italy (up ~4%) was partially offset by lower production in Spain (down ~2%) and the U.K. (down ~17%).

See table on page 2 for regional dispersions.

 

Analysts

Samuel McKinney / (216) 689-0283 / samuel.mckinney@key.com

Read Full Report

Read more